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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.